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Have you ever wondered how finish times are impacted by river conditions?

Lord Root Beer*, the Portland Bridge Swim statistician, decided to explore that question for a school assignment. He found a strong correlation between finish times and the amount of time that swimmers faced an incoming tide. The data for solo swimmers without wetsuits are:

2011
Fastest time 4:19:10
Average time 5:26:06
Duration of incoming tide 3 hours, 42 minutes

2012
Fastest time 3:49:14
Average time 4:53:47
Duration of incoming tide 37 minutes

2013
Fastest time 4:11:09
Average time 5:05:31
Duration of incoming tide 1 hours, 32 minutes

2014 No finishers, race canceled

2015
Fastest time 3:37:20 (Eddie Switaj, current race record)
Average time 5:01:51
Duration of incoming tide 2 hours, 14 minutes

2016
Fastest time 4:16:44
Average time 5:13:42
Duration of incoming tide 3 hours, 7 minutes

2017
Fastest time 3:48:33
Average time 4:59:00
Duration of incoming tide 0 hours, 0 minutes

2018
Fastest time 3:58:04
Average time 5:29:13
Duration of incoming tide 3 hours, 26 minutes

Lord Root Beer predicts that this year, with 2 hours 49 minutes against the tide, the average race time should be around 5 hours, 11 minutes. Let’s see how we do!

*Not his real name